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On August 7, Forbes News reported that China's share in the global battery market is expected to exceed 70% by 2020. In other words, China may dominate the global battery industry.
According to the data, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China reached 517000 in 2016, maintaining a global growth rate for two consecutive years. It is estimated that the sales volume will reach 1.5 million by 2020. The huge sales base of new energy vehicles drives the development of battery industry. At present, there are nearly 150 large and small battery manufacturers in China. Moreover, the utilization rate of domestic lithium-ion batteries in Chinese brand electric vehicles has exceeded 90%.
In this case, China's domestic battery industry is also developing in a gathering trend. More and more niche battery enterprises are gradually declining in the proportion of sales, and even face the risk of closing down. At the same time, battery enterprises are developing towards monopoly represented by battery giants such as BYD, Ningde times and GuoXuan high tech.
In 2020, China's power battery industry accounted for 70% of the global battery industry
China is not only the world of electric vehicles, but also the sales scale of power battery enterprises. According to statistics, seven of the top ten global power battery enterprises in 2016 were from China, followed by BYD, Ningde times, watmar, GuoXuan high tech, Lishen, bick and AVIC lithium. In addition, Wanxiang A123 and ha optics are also ranked 11th and 12th.
According to the data, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2016 was 517000. Due to the growth of new energy vehicle sales, the annual output of lithium-ion batteries in China soared to 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%. It is predicted that the global share of power lithium batteries in China will also rise from 34% in 2015 to 70% in 2020.
At present, the scale of the global lithium-ion market has increased steadily in recent years, reaching 215.8 billion yuan in 2016. By 2020, the scale of the global lithium-ion battery market is expected to reach 450 billion yuan, of which the scale of China's lithium-ion battery market is expected to reach 300 billion yuan. Accounting for 66.6% and nearly 70%.
Moreover, industry insiders predict that if the domestic power battery capacity is fully released, the capacity will reach 170gwh / year. What is the concept of 170gwh / year? 170gwh can meet the total demand of 500000 electric buses and 5 million electric passenger vehicles per year. Wang Zidong, director of 863 electric vehicle major special power battery test center, said that such production capacity is more than seven times the current market demand. According to the prediction of new energy planning, China's demand for power batteries will be 71.7gwh by 2020.
China's battery industry is on the road to strength
From the above data, China's battery industry is undoubtedly the world's "big" in volume. But when it comes to "strong", some people may question it. At present, the familiar battery manufacturers are Panasonic in Japan, Samsung and LG Chemical in South Korea, Tesla super factory, BYD in China, etc.
Battery technology originated in Japan, and then further developed in South Korea. Now it has developed and expanded in the Chinese market. However, there is a certain gap between China and foreign countries in battery technology and battery capacity. For example, at present, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate in China is 120 to 140 watt hours per kilogram, and the energy density of ternary material battery can reach 180 watt hours per kilogram. In contrast, Japan and South Korea ternary material batteries can reach 300 watt hours per kilogram in 2015. The Panasonic 18650 battery used in Tesla Model 3, which has been pre sold, has an energy density of 333 watt hours per kilogram.
In addition, Bian Shuguang, deputy director of the high technology development center of the Ministry of science and technology, said that compared with foreign countries, the United States has relatively strong R & D and design capacity, and Japan's production norms are relatively strict, while China surpasses Japan in market share and occupies the world position. The gap between China and foreign countries is mainly in terms of single battery, but there is still a large distance in terms of materials, even in some basic research of basic power supply, including consistency, battery safety and core technology. From these aspects, China's battery industry is "not strong".
In view of this situation, on July 4, vice premier Ma Kai held a symposium on the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. It was clearly pointed out at the meeting that the goal of 350 battery cells and 260 watt hours per kilogram of system will be achieved by 2020. In this way, in less than two and a half years, China's battery capacity ratio will double that of now.
According to the "made in China 2025" plan, the battery will reach 350 Watt hours per kilogram in 2020, 400 watt hours per kilogram in 2025 and 500 watt hours per kilogram in 2030. In terms of power battery R & D planning, it will reach 300 watt hours per kilogram by 2020, and the cost will be reduced to less than 0.8 yuan per watt. The energy density is required to reach more than 500 watt hours / kg. From the perspective of development goals, it can be said to catch up with and surpass the foreign battery industry. By 2020, the "big but not strong" of China's battery industry will become a thing of the past.
With regard to the phenomenon of "big but not strong" in China's domestic battery industry, insiders told Automotive prophets that China's battery industry cannot be generalized by "big but not strong". At present, the capacity density of batteries in China, including battery packs, is indeed not as good as that in foreign countries. However, compared with foreign countries, the market application environment of China's battery industry is better than that of foreign countries. According to Roland Berger's e-mobility index q22017 in the second quarter of 2017, the utilization rate of domestic lithium-ion batteries in Chinese brand electric vehicles has exceeded 90%. It is precisely because of the different ideas of developing the battery industry at home and abroad that China's battery industry continues to explore and make progress in practice. In 2013, the cost of once electricity packaged into a battery pack was 2500 yuan to 3000 yuan. At present, the market price is about 1500 yuan, the cost is reduced by nearly half, and it is still matched with the quality assurance commitment policy requirements of 8 years or 300000 kilometers. From this point of view,
China's battery industry is on the road to strength.
China's battery share has moved from group to minority car enterprises
At this stage, the conclusion that China's battery industry is "large but not strong" has become a thing of the past, whether in terms of the proportion of the global scale or in terms of the momentum of development. Moreover, from the perspective of the development scale of domestic battery production enterprises, local small enterprises in the past have gradually developed to centralization and scale.